Expected Number of ITAs for Express Entry in December 2024: Projections and Insights
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- How Are ITA Numbers Determined?
- Estimating ITAs for December 2024
- The Role of Immigration Levels Plans
- Who Are the Likely Candidates for December ITAs?
- Conclusion
1. Introduction
As we approach the end of the year, many Express Entry candidates are keen to know how many Invitations to Apply (ITAs) will be issued in December 2024. Previous trends and Canada’s immigration targets provide us with a framework to estimate these numbers. While it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty, analyzing the patterns from 2021 to 2023 can give us a reasonable projection.
2. How Are ITA Numbers Determined?
The number of ITAs issued by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is linked to the country’s immigration goals for permanent residency. The ITA figures aim to align with the number of permanent resident landings IRCC expects in the upcoming year, as outlined in the Immigration Levels Plan. However, there is often a gap between the issuance of ITAs and actual landings, due to processing delays and logistical considerations.
Additionally, ITA issuance does not guarantee a successful landing, as some candidates may not complete the process, or their applications might be refused. Furthermore, there are variations in processing times, making it difficult to predict an exact outcome.
3. Estimating ITAs for December 2024
Based on historical data, we can make an educated guess regarding the number of ITAs expected in December. Typically, the months between July and December see a significant number of ITAs being issued. Over the last five years, it has been observed that between 43% to 46% of the following year’s immigration target is achieved in this period.
Given Canada’s 2025 immigration target of 124,680 newcomers under the Express Entry system, and the 52,888 ITAs issued from July to November 2024, we can expect approximately 3,522 more ITAs to be issued in December. This number is based on maintaining the average ITA issuance trend observed in recent years, although it is subject to fluctuation.
4. The Role of Immigration Levels Plans
The Immigration Levels Plan outlines the federal immigration targets for each year. These targets include specific allocations for Express Entry, broken down into categories such as Federal Skilled Workers, Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP). The split between these categories will influence which candidates are more likely to receive ITAs in the upcoming draw.
In the case of 2025, Canada’s immigration targets are divided into two key areas:
- Federal Economic Priorities (41,700 admissions): This includes candidates with skills in high-demand sectors such as healthcare, trade occupations, and those with strong French language proficiency.
- In-Canada Focus (82,980 admissions): This category will prioritize candidates already in Canada, including those in the CEC, Express Entry-aligned PNP streams, and possibly the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) and Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP).
Given these priorities, we can expect a significant number of the December ITAs to be allocated to candidates in these categories, especially those with healthcare or trade experience, or strong French language skills.
5. Who Are the Likely Candidates for December ITAs?
The distribution of ITAs in December will be influenced by the specific focus areas of the Immigration Levels Plan. The last few Express Entry draws in 2024 show a trend where candidates from the following categories have been targeted:
- Canadian Experience Class (CEC): 7 draws
- Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): 7 draws
- French Language Proficiency: 4 draws
- Trade Occupations: 1 draw
- Healthcare Occupations: 1 draw
Given these trends, it is likely that the remaining ITAs for December will be predominantly allocated to candidates from these groups. This could include individuals already residing in Canada, those with in-demand trade or healthcare skills, or candidates proficient in French.
6. Conclusion
In summary, based on historical trends and Canada’s immigration targets, it is reasonable to expect that around 3,522 ITAs may be issued in December 2024. However, this is a forecast and may vary depending on multiple factors, including IRCC’s evolving policies and priorities. Candidates with skills in key sectors like healthcare, trade, or strong French language abilities are likely to be in focus during the final draw of the year.
As always, while predictions can help, only IRCC can determine the exact number of ITAs issued in any given draw. It remains important for candidates to stay updated on announcements and continue preparing for the next steps in their immigration journey.
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