What to Expect from the Next Express Entry Draw: Trends and Predictions for 2025
As we near the midpoint of 2025, the landscape of Canada’s Express Entry system remains dynamic and unpredictable, shaped by significant policy shifts and evolving immigration priorities under the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
The most recent draw, held on May 13, 2025, saw 500 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) issued to Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates with a CRS cut-off of 547—the highest of the year for CEC. With scores climbing and draw sizes shrinking, many prospective immigrants are anxious to understand what’s next.
Here’s a comprehensive look at emerging trends and what we can reasonably expect from the upcoming draws.
Key Express Entry Trends in 2025
1. Increased Focus on In-Canada Candidates
IRCC has clearly shifted attention toward applicants already residing in Canada. With over 9,350 ITAs issued to CEC candidates by early May, this group now forms the backbone of Express Entry. The high CRS score of 547 from the recent draw shows how competitive this stream has become—especially as permanent resident targets have dropped from 485,000 in 2024 to 395,000 in 2025, marking Canada’s first decrease in over a decade.
2. Category-Based Draws Gaining Momentum
Category-based selections continue to rise, with IRCC expected to allocate 40,000+ spots through specialized draws this year. These target high-demand occupations and specific groups, including:
- French-speaking candidates
- Healthcare professionals
- Trades and STEM workers
- Education professionals (e.g., teachers and early childhood educators)
Notably, French-language draws have had the lowest CRS cut-offs—as low as 379—and offer a major advantage to bilingual candidates.
3. Sharp Decline in Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Invitations
While PNP draws used to play a dominant role, only 4,079 ITAs were issued under this category as of May 2, 2025. The PNP allocation was halved, from 110,000 in 2024 to 55,000 this year, as part of efforts to manage housing and healthcare pressures.
Although PNP draws continue biweekly, CRS cut-offs remain high due to the 600-point nomination bonus—with recent scores exceeding 760.
4. Job Offer Points Removed
A major update in March 2025 eliminated CRS points for valid job offers (previously worth 50–200 points). This move was aimed at curbing fraudulent LMIA practices but has tightened the competition, with high CRS scores still dominating due to fewer draws and smaller ITA batches.
5. Smaller Draws and High CRS Thresholds
So far in 2025, draw sizes have decreased while cut-off scores remain steep. This reflects IRCC’s cautious approach: with over 852,000 PR applications already in the pipeline, the department is slowing intake to avoid backlogs and align with annual immigration caps.
What Could Happen in the Next Draw?
Expected Timing:
- The next draw is likely between May 27 and May 30, 2025.
- However, given IRCC’s unpredictable behavior, a draw could still happen this week.
Likely Draw Type:
- A category-based draw is most likely—potentially targeting:
- French-speaking candidates
- Healthcare professionals
- Trades occupations
CEC draws are less likely as one was just held on May 13. A PNP draw is possible but would be small due to limited quotas.
Predicted CRS Cut-Offs by Category:
- French Proficiency: 360–380
- Healthcare: 490–510
- Trades: Around 450
- PNP: Above 700 (due to nomination bonus)
If you have a CRS score below 450, your best bet is to qualify under French or Trades categories.
Number of ITAs Expected:
- Draw sizes may vary between 500 and 2,000 ITAs.
- French-focused draws often see larger numbers (up to 7,500), while healthcare or trades draws are usually smaller (500–1,000).
By May 13, IRCC had issued 34,440 ITAs, showing a noticeable slowdown compared to the beginning of the year, suggesting that IRCC is carefully managing numbers to stay within its annual PR target.
Will CRS Scores Drop in 2025?
In general, no significant drop in CRS cut-offs is expected in 2025. With fewer draws, limited ITAs, and reduced immigration targets, the system remains highly competitive. However, candidates with strong French skills, Canadian experience, or occupations in demand still have strong chances—especially through category-based draws.
Key Takeaways for Applicants
- Focus on improving your language scores, especially French.
- Gain Canadian work experience if you’re already in the country.
- Consider roles in high-demand sectors like healthcare, education, or skilled trades.
- Keep your profile updated and monitor category-based draw opportunities closely.
IRCC’s Express Entry system in 2025 may be tighter, but with strategic preparation, applicants can still make the system work to their advantage.
For a consultation about Immigration options, reach out to the CAD IMMIGRATION today!
