Canada Records Population Decline in Q3 2025 as Temporary Resident Numbers Fall
Population Shrinks for the First Time This Year
Canada’s population declined during the third quarter of 2025, marking a notable shift after years of steady growth. Preliminary estimates released by Statistics Canada show that between July 1 and October 1, 2025, the country’s population decreased by 76,068 people, representing a 0.2% decline.
This is the first quarterly population contraction recorded in 2025, signaling the early impact of tighter federal immigration policies—particularly those affecting temporary residents.
Temporary Resident Reductions Drive the Decline
Statistics Canada attributes the population decrease primarily to a significant drop in non-permanent residents (NPRs). During Q3 2025, the number of NPRs fell by 176,479, making it the largest quarterly decline since comparable records began in 1971.
The reduction occurred as outflows far exceeded inflows. Approximately 339,505 individuals exited temporary status—mainly due to expired permits—while only 163,026 new permits were issued during the same period.
As a result, the total number of non-permanent residents fell from 3,024,216 (7.3% of the population) on July 1 to 2,847,737 (6.8%) by October 1, 2025.
Declines Seen Across Most Provinces
Most provinces and territories experienced population losses or minimal growth during the quarter.
- Ontario recorded the largest decline at -0.4%
- British Columbia followed with a -0.3% decrease
- Manitoba and the Northwest Territories each declined by -0.2%
Only Alberta and Nunavut reported population growth, each increasing by 0.2%, reflecting their continued ability to attract residents despite national trends.
Sharp Drop Among International Students and Workers
The overall decline in non-permanent residents was largely driven by reductions in three key groups:
- Study permit holders only: down by 73,682
- Individuals holding both work and study permits: down by 67,616
- Work permit holders only: down by 35,231
The decrease in international students was most pronounced in Ontario and British Columbia, provinces that traditionally host the largest student populations.
Asylum Claims Continue to Rise
In contrast to other temporary resident categories, the number of asylum claimants, protected persons, and related groups increased by 7,324 in Q3 2025. This marked the 15th consecutive quarterly increase, bringing the total to a record 504,767 individuals, although the pace of growth has slowed compared to previous years.
Permanent Immigration Remains Steady
Despite declines in temporary migration, permanent immigration remained stable. Canada welcomed 102,867 new permanent residents in the third quarter, a level consistent with recent quarters and aligned with the federal government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
Statistics Canada notes that permanent immigration helped partially offset the population decline caused by reductions in temporary residents.
Policy Changes Behind the Shift
The federal government has introduced several immigration policy changes over the past two years that directly impacted temporary resident numbers, including:
- A moratorium on low-wage LMIAs in regions with unemployment rates of 6% or higher
- Stricter eligibility rules for spousal open work permits
- New language and field-of-study requirements for Post-Graduation Work Permits
- A cap on study permit applications, with a reduced number of permits issued for 2025
These measures align with Ottawa’s broader objective of reducing temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027.
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