Canada Sees Sharp Decline in Temporary Resident Arrivals
Canada is witnessing a significant slowdown in the arrival of temporary residents as new data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) reveals steep year-over-year drops in both international student and foreign worker entries.
This decline reflects the federal government’s push to reduce the temporary resident population to less than 5% of Canada’s total population through tighter immigration policies and reduced permit issuances.
Key Highlights – July 2025 vs July 2024
- Worker Arrivals:
- July 2025: 18,500 new work permit holders arrived.
- July 2024: 29,595 new work permit holders arrived.
- Change: Down 37% year-over-year.
- Student Arrivals:
- July 2025: 7,685 new study permit holders arrived.
- July 2024: 17,140 new study permit holders arrived.
- Change: Down 55% year-over-year.
- Total Decline in July Arrivals:
- 20,550 fewer new workers and students entered Canada compared to July 2024.
- June to July 2025 Drop:
- Total arrivals (students + workers) fell from 28,245 in June 2025 to 26,185 in July 2025, a 7.29% month-over-month decrease.
Cumulative Declines in 2025
- From January to July 2025, Canada admitted 235,070 fewer temporary residents (workers + students) compared to the same period in 2024.
- New student arrivals fell 70%, and new worker arrivals fell 50% during the first half of 2025.
- Canada’s temporary resident population peaked at 2,446,523 in August 2024 and has steadily declined since then.
Current Temporary Resident Population
The population of foreign nationals holding various permits reflects the shifting trends:
1. International Students (Study Permit Holders)
| Month/Year | Number of Study Permit Holders |
|---|---|
| July 2025 | 499,365 |
| July 2024 | 619,070 |
| June 2025 | 546,560 |
- Year-over-year decrease: -119,705 compared to July 2024.
- Month-over-month decrease: -47,195 compared to June 2025.
2. Foreign Workers (Work Permit Holders)
| Month/Year | Number of Work Permit Holders |
|---|---|
| July 2025 | 1,494,905 |
| July 2024 | 1,423,545 |
| June 2025 | 1,504,575 |
- Year-over-year change: +71,360 (+5%) compared to July 2024.
- Month-over-month change: -9,670 compared to June 2025.
- Observation: Work permit holders are slightly increasing year-over-year, but July saw a small monthly decline.
3. Individuals Holding Both Study and Work Permits
| Month/Year | Number of Individuals |
|---|---|
| July 2025 | 286,465 |
| June 2025 | 312,010 |
| July 2024 | 356,380 |
- Year-over-year decrease: -69,915 compared to July 2024.
- Month-over-month decrease: -25,545 compared to June 2025.
Reasons Behind the Decline
- Government Policy Shift:
- Since early 2024, Canada has introduced measures to curb the temporary resident population, including caps on study permits and stricter work permit issuance.
- The government aims to bring temporary residents down to below 5% of the total population.
- Lagging Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWP):
- As international students graduate, they often transition to PGWPs.
- The government’s 2024 cap on study permits means future work permit numbers may drop further in the coming years.
- Seasonal and Economic Factors:
- A slowdown in new study permits during summer intake, combined with tighter labour market regulations, has reduced both worker and student arrivals.
Political and Policy Debate
- Conservative Criticism:
- Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre recently called for the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) to be scrapped and for a halt to all new permits.
- Poilievre claimed the federal government exceeded its immigration targets, citing 105,000 TFWP permits issued from January to June 2025 compared to the annual target of 82,000.
- Fact Check:
- IRCC clarified that Poilievre’s claim is misleading.
- Of the 105,000 permits, only 33,700 were new arrivals (41% of the annual target). The rest were extensions or renewals for foreign workers already in Canada.
International Mobility Program (IMP) vs TFWP
- International Mobility Program (IMP):
- The majority of work permits are issued under the IMP, not the TFWP.
- 2025 Target: 285,750 new arrivals under IMP.
- 2026 Target: 128,700 new arrivals (a 55% decrease).
- Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP):
- 2025 Target: 82,000 new arrivals (remains flat for 2026).
This shift highlights the government’s strategy to manage economic needs while reducing overall temporary resident numbers.
Broader Impact
- Population Growth Slowdown:
- From January 1 to April 1, 2025, Canada’s total population increased by only 20,107 people—close to 0.0% growth.
- During the same period, the temporary resident population fell by 61,111, showing the direct impact of restrictive immigration measures.
- Economic Implications:
- Fewer students affect universities, colleges, and local economies dependent on tuition and housing markets.
- Reduced foreign worker inflow impacts industries facing labour shortages, including agriculture, hospitality, and healthcare.
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